Thailands economy likely grew modestly in Q1, stung by high inflation: Reuters poll

　　div classBodysc17zpet90 cdBBJodivpBy Arsh Tushar Mogrep

　　pBENGALURU Reuters – Thailands economy likely grew modestly in the first quarter, thanks to robust exports and an easing of COVID19 restrictions and despite low tourist arrivals and high inflation dampening consumer spending, a Reuters poll found.pdivdivdiv classBodysc17zpet90 cdBBJodiv

　　pSoutheast Asias secondlargest economy is estimated to have expanded 2.1 in the JanuaryMarch period compared with the same period a year earlier, according to a May 613 poll of 15 economists. It showed annual growth of 1.9 in the previous quarter.p

　　p“We expect Thailand GDP to recover moderately in 1Q22, given a rebound in economic activities after COVID restrictions eased,” said Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior researcher at Kasikorn Research Center.p

　　p“Tourism recovery and strong exports will be the main driving factors for the Thai economy in 1Q22,” she said.p

　　pFirstquarter gross domestic product GDP was estimated to have been 0.9 higher than in the previous quarter, according to a smaller sample of forecasts. That would be half of the quarterly growth of 1.8 in the fourth quarter of 2021.p

　　pEstimates of the latest quarterly change ranged from a 0.8 contraction to 1.7 growth, highlighting the uncertainties surrounding the recovery of the economy from the pandemic.p

　　pThe data is due to be released at 0130 GMT on May 17.p

　　p“A deceleration of GDP growth is expected due to impacts from the RussiaUkraine conflict, a decline in consumer confidence with soaring inflation and a decline in household nonenergy spending” said Phacharaphot Nuntramas, chief economist at Krung Thai Bank.p

　　pInflation has remained above the Bank of Thailands upper limit of 3 so far this year and is expected to remain there until the end of the year, according to a separate Reuters poll.p

　　pThe tourismreliant economy is on track to receive just 6.1 million foreign visitors this year, falling short of an earlier projection of 7 million because of Chinas travel restrictions and curtailment of Russian visits due to the war in Ukraine.p

　　pIn 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic, Thailand received nearly 40 million visitors.p

　　pGDP for all of 2022 is expected to be 3.5 higher than a year earlier, according to another Reuters poll, in line with recently trimmed government projections and the IMF.p

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　　pp Reporting by Arsh Tushar Mogre Polling by Md Manzer Hussain Editing by Bradley Perrettp

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