Mohicans markets：Europan Investment Research Viewpoint Focus on the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Resolution

Key Data

Fundamentals overview

During Asian and European sessions on Wednesday, September 7, spot gold shock weakness, once refreshing the four-day low to in the vicinity of $ 1691.31 per ounce. It is currently trading near $1703.64 per ounce; market expectations of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in September climbed again, helping the dollar index to refresh more than 20-year highs. The U.S. bond yields higher, and most of the worlds central banks favor further interest rate hikes, are forming pressure on gold prices.

The U.S. crude oil shuddered and weakened, once refreshing a nearly seven-month low to $85.07 per barrel. Most central banks around the world tend to raise interest rates sharply to curb prices, global recession and energy demand growth slowdown concerns heat up. But the continued rise in the dollar index to new highs of more than 20 years also weighed on oil prices.

The dollar index has dense support below and is currently testing primary support at 110.24. EURUSD has fallen back from its daily high to near the pivoting point and then faces a choice of direction in the market. GBPUSD is concerned about support at 1.1488. USDJPY still has no short term resistance above.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 16:30 on September 7, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical View

ONE · Technical Level · International Gold

1745 Trend resistance

1728-1730 resistance

1718-1722 Intraday stronger resistance

1708-1711 Intraday key resistance area, breakthrough to ease downside action

1704 Todays Asian volume start point, the first resistance level

1690-1695 support area

1680 key intra-year support area (long term)

Technical Analysis

Last nights U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI release showed that the U.S. service sector maintained growth momentum, while supply bottlenecks and price pressures eased, reinforcing the view that the economy is not in recession, and the Fed still has the bottom line to first raise interest rates first to control inflation. 10-year U.S. bond yields are approaching their mid-June highs, and U.S. indices are moving higher in tandem, causing gold and silver prices to fall back under pressure again. Gold fell below 1700, has approached the key support area of the year, need to be alert to the market into a shock or false break down.

From the options change, 1700 above although there are some call options to increase positions. But there are simultaneous put options to increase bets, and call options show that the willingness of the long position increase is not consistent, gold prices are expected to achieve a strong rally above 1700 is limited. While below 1700, mainly bearish options changes are dominant, in the case of 1690 loss, the short target will look to the vicinity of 1675.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 7. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

TWO · Technical level · Spot silver

18.50 Bullish increase, bearish slightly increase, long target

18.40 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, resistance

18.25 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged, long target

17.95-18 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase sharply, long and short struggle, key Levels

17.70-17.90 Bullish decrease sharply, bearish increase, short target

17.60 Bullish decrease sharply, bearish increase, short target

Technical Analysis

The gold-silver ratio is bouncing around 92.3 support and is expected to rally further if it can break 95. While gold and silver may continue to be under pressure to the downside, and silver will fall more than gold. Silver tested 17.85 support in Asian trading but held steady. If it breaks below that level, it could retest the previous low area around 17.5, which is one of the short targets for options bets, followed by 17.4. However, options changes show that 18.05-18.1 is a contested area for both the long and short sides. If silver fails to regain stability at that level, be wary of the risk of renewed pressure to the downside.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 7. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

THREE · Technical Level · US Crude Oil

89-89.5 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, rally target is also resistance

87.5-88.5 Bullish decrease, bearish increase, support resistance conversion level

87.3 Intraday primary focus on resistance

86 oscillator lower edge, key support converted to resistance

84-85 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease, downside action weaken

82-83 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, downside action weaken

80-81 Bullish increase, bearish increasing sharply, short target

Technical Analysis

The U.S. crude oil continued to maintain range fluctuations on Tuesday, testing 89.5 neckline resistance in the European session before hitting a resistance pullback and falling into a narrow 86-88 range oscillation in the U.S. session. From an options perspective, 82-86 is dominated by bearish funds leaving the market, and short term downside action has weakened. However, on a broad level, oil prices are already testing the lower edge of the recent oscillation range, with the daily closing a long upper shadow line for two consecutive days. This indicates a lack of rebound momentum, and we need to be wary of oil prices effectively breaking below 86 to open a new downside. The first support is at 85, then 82-83, while short targets are at 80-81 on the upside, with long money mainly betting on 89-90. However, the prerequisite for a rebound here is that oil prices need to first break through the resistance posed by the new bearish bets at 87.5-88.5 to expect to ease downside momentum, otherwise there is still downside risk during the day. 

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 7. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FOUR ·  Technical Level · EURUSD

1.00 Bullish increase greatly and the stock is large, bearish is greatly reduced but the stock is large, the long target and resistance

0.995 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease sharply and the stock is large, rebound target

0.99-0.9925 Bullish increase, bearish increase and large stock, resistance area

0.985 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, fall back to support

0.98 Bullish is unchanged, bearish is reduced and the stock is large, and the short target and support.

Technical Analysis

The trend of the euro followed the dollar on Tuesday and continued to fall in the European market, falling below 0.99 for a time, and then bottomed out and returned to above 0.99. After the market opened today, it is still hovering around 0.99. From the perspective of option distribution, the bulls basically only have layout actions above 0.9g. And the new bets are mainly new, while the short funds have left the market in large numbers. On the whole, the funds are inclined to bet on the rebound above 0.99.

Among them, 0.99-0.9925 call and put options have new bets, and the competition means strong, which will be the resistance range; if it can rise above 0.9925, the upward momentum is expected to strengthen, and Europe and the United States may test the rebound target of 0.995 and the long target of 1.00. On the contrary, if it falls below 0.99, the fall support will be located at 0.985, of which the short funds around 0.98 are dense and will be the downside short target.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 7th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

FIVE · Technical Level · GBPUSD

1.16 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but there is stock, strong resistance

1.155 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level

1.15 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, resistance level

1.145 Bullish unchanged, bearish unchanged but large stock, bear target and support level

1.14 Bullish unchanged, bearish sharply reduced, bearish target and support

1.135 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, support level

Technical Analysis

The pound did not successfully break through 1.16-1.1620 last night, and stepped back to support near 1.145. The pound and the United States may test 1.16 again during the day. Judging from the changes in options, there are signs of the bears leaving the market, and the downside energy has weakened, but the bulls' bets are not strong.

1.145 is an important support level for the recent trend. There are many short stocks here, and we need to pay attention to the defense here. The lower support is at 1.14, which is also the bearish target, but the bearish bets are reduced and the downside momentum is weakened.

The GBPUSD is currently preparing to test the 1.15 resistance. If it breaks through successfully, it is expected to go up further. The upper resistance is at 1.155 and 1.16. Only a successful breakthrough of 1.16 can relieve the recent pressure on the GBPUSD.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 7th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

SIX · Technical Level · AUDUSD

0.685-0.6875 Bullish increase, bearish increase, rebound target and resistance

0.68 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly, rebound first resistance

0.675 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, resistance weakens

0.67 Bullish increase, bearish period decrease, weak support

0.6675 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bear target

0.665 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, short second target and support

Technical Analysis

After stepping back to 0.6830 again on Tuesday, it continued to fall, reaching the 0.67 mark. This is the upper edge of the concentrated betting range of put options, which has a certain weak support, but the put options concentrated at 0.6675 and increased positions, becoming a short-term short-term short-term target. Once it breaks down, it may look towards 0.665. Above the current price, only a few call options are betting on a rebound, implying that the upward movement is limited, of which the resistance at .675 is weak, and the bulls' rebound targets are mainly at 0.68, 0.685-0.6875.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 16:00 on September 7th. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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