Mohicans markets：Gold bears take profit and leave, crude oil bulls face heavy resistance

Mohicans Markets ETA is the education and training center of MHM Chinese service area. Based on the global financial derivatives market, it aims to create an exclusive learning platform for industry practitioners and investors.

Reminder: This article involves the technical analysis of 6 varieties of spot gold, spot silver, U.S. crude oil, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD. Starting from the distribution of market chips, the change data of options positions published on the CME official website is superimposed on the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry to more accurately mark the market trading sentiment in important price ranges.

The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data, which is updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example:

The opinions and strategies provided in this article are for reference only. The data are all from large brokers. Please check them according to your needs. They are not investment suggestions. Please read the statement terms at the end of the article carefully.

Key Data

Market Overview

Long and short news

On Friday, September 23, during the European session, spot gold fluctuated in the range of $30. The day after the September FOMC meeting, the Fed took in a total of $2.359 trillion in fixed-rate reverse repurchase operations from 102 counter parties, a record high. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's speech showed that she is very hopeful that the Fed can address inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. Yellen believes U.S. inflation will fall next year, but it may not reach its 2 percent inflation target next year.

Data suggest that U.S. supply chain issues are gradually recovering, and that even in the midst of a tightening cycle, the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient and can withstand the impact of further interest rate hikes. The high risk of recession in the euro zone will restrict the ECBs interest rate hikes. In contrast, the stickiness of US inflation, the continued hawkishness of the Fed and the resilience of the US economy will lead to the end of the Fed rate hike cycle being further away than non-US central banks, and the rate hikes will be more aggressive. The boost from expectations of far-end interest rate hikes will continue to support the dollar, and the pressure on non-U.S. currencies may be further extended.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on September 23, 2022, Beijing time.

Technical Point of View

CME Group options layout changes:

1695-1700 Bullish increase sharply, bearish decrease, first target and key resistance for bulls

1690 Bullish sharply reduced, bearish reduced, key resistance

1675 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease slightly, the dividing point of bullish and bearish sentiment

1660 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but large stock, support level

1650 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, key support

1640-1645 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, bearish target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

1698 Trend resistance (a breakout will weaken bearish confidence)

1690-1693 Important resistance

1680 first resistance

1668 Intraday long and short boundary

1664 Short-term support

1654-1660 Long key defensive position

1643 Short target

Technical Analysis

Gold did not go out of the way on Thursday, pay attention to whether the US Markit manufacturing and service PM data tonight can give short-term direction choices.

After testing the support near 1660 for many times, the options changes showed that the put options above 1653 began to leave the market and the shorts who bet near 1633 the day before also began to lighten up a lot, and the momentum of falling below 1653 may weaken. The short-term short-term targets below are mainly concentrated at 1643-1648.

The first support of the day is the order flow key at 1668, followed by 1663-1664. As long as it stabilizes above 1653, it may continue to oscillate in the 1653-1698 range if the bearish kinetic energy weakens. Above the current price, call options are intensively increased at 1683-1703, and the demarcation point of short-term long and short sentiment is at 1678. Stabilization is expected to continue to look towards 1693 or even around 1700.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Changes in CME Group's options layout (Futures prices in December):

20 Bullish sharply reduced, bearish increased, strong resistance

19.75 Bullish decrease, bearish equal increase, key resistance

19.5 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, first support

19.25 Bullish reduction, bearish equal reduction, support level

19-19.05 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease sharply, key support

18.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, support level

18.50 Bullish increase, bearish decrease sharply, downside action weakened

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

20.25 The first goal after the break

19.80-20 DMA level downtrend line resistance area

19.7 First resistance level

19.41 Hourly Uptrend Line Support

19.15 Support after breaking point (19.32 also has some support during the period)

18.8-18.98 Key support in the day

18.3 Support during the week (bulls cost zone)

Technical Analysis

Silvers hourly line is in a convergent triangle state, facing the resistance of the daily downward trend-line above (19.8-20), and the hourly upward trend-line support (19.45) below. We need to wait for which direction silver will choose to break.

From the perspective of options changes, 77 call options at the 20 mark of Qiang Yangli have reduced their positions, and at the same time, the put options at the 19 mark have also left the market. It may be that the demand for hedging has weakened after the risk event.

Near the current price, 19.45 became the first short-term support, the 19-19.2 support was denser, and the key support was still 18.95-19. If it can stabilize above 19.45, silver still faces the key resistance of 19.7, and it is expected to challenge the 20 mark if it breaks above.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes:

86 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level

85 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level

84 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, first resistance

83 Bullish decrease, bearish decrease sharply, downside energy weakened

80 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, bearish target

78 Bullish slightly reduced, bearish increased, bears target

The key points of the order flow are marked:

85.9-86.4 The key resistance, and it is expected to see 87-88 after stabilization.

84.8 Resistance zone

84.2 Ultra-short-term resistance

83 First Support

81.7-82.13 Key support range

80-81 Early short target

78 The first key position after breaking

Technical Analysis

Crude oil continued to fluctuate. Judging from the changes in options, bulls and bears were betting on the far end, and the competition at the near end intensified and resistance strengthened. The market has not yet made a clear directional bet on the future trend of oil prices, and the previous point still affects the trend. During the day, we will pay attention to the 83 support level that has been tested many times before.

84 There are many shorts entering the market, which constitutes resistance to the short-term oil price, while 85 has more longs entering the market, which intensifies the long-short competition for this resistance level. If crude continues to break out, it will test 86 further.

On the other hand, the bears near 83 have signs of leaving the market. After many tests in recent days, there is a certain level of support. The bears have begun to relax their short-selling efforts, but they still need to be alert to the risk of breaking down. The bearish bet of 82.5 below is still relatively firm, and the bearish target is at 80 and 78.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

0.9950-1.00 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, the range of rebound target

0.99-0.9925 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase sharply, key resistance zone

0.9850 Bullish increase, bearish increase slightly but stock prevails, resistance level

0.98 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease but huge stock, key support level

0.97 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bearish target

Technical Analysis

EURUSD tested the 0.98 level several times after the Fed meeting, but held that support. From the perspective of options changes, the call options increased by 3 lots, and the put options decreased by 24 lots, but the stock is high, and it is expected that 0.98 will be supported by short-term profits. However, a break below this level will trigger fresh bearish pressure with a target of 0.97. On the other hand, the main concern range for longs and shorts is 0.9850-0.9925. Both longs and shorts have increased their bets in this range, and it is expected that there will still be long and short competitions. Only by effectively breaking through the 0.99-0.9925 range, can it be expected to get rid of the low-level shock trend and look at the parity level.Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

1.1450 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase slightly and the stock dominates, long target and resistance

1.1420 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, resistance level

1.1350 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly but the stock prevails, rebound target, resistance level

1.13 Bullish increase, bearish increase, resistance level

1.1270 Bullish increase sharply, bearish equally increase, key resistance

1.12 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, support level

1.11-1.1150 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bearish target

Technical Analysis

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, which  surprises the market. GBPUSD tested 1.1350 many times and was able to break through, returning to trading below 1.13. From the perspective of options changes, the key resistance in the day is 1.1270, where both call and put options have increased by 134 lots, constituting a long-short competition. A break above this level may mean that the short-term rebound momentum has the upper hand, and the top is concerned about the defense of 1.13 and 1.1350 resistance.

On the other hand, put options at 1.12 near the multiple-tested low fell by 38 contracts, perhaps indicating a profit-taking tendency for short-term bears. Here is expected to continue to provide support, below will see 1.11-1.11150.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

0.675 Bullish increase, bearish decrease but the stock is large, long and short fight for points

0.6725 Bullish reduction, bearish unchanged, bulls target

0.67 Bullish increase, bearish unchanged and the stock is large, resistance level

0.655 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, bearish target

0.65 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease, downward momentum expands

Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is still in a state of shock and decline, and there is no obvious action on the options, but the bulls' bets at high levels have begun to leave the market, and the market's confidence in the upside of the AUDUSD is weakening. As mentioned in the previous report, the bullish support below the AUDUSD is weak, and the downside risks are gradually expanding.

The upper resistance is at 0.67, the short-term bearish target is at 0.66, and the secondary bearish target is at 0.655. If it continues to decline to 0.65, the bearish stock advantage below may extend the downward momentum of AUDUSD.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 23. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

Mohicans Markets, (Abbreviation: MHMarkets or MHM, Chinese name: Maihui), Australian Financial Services License No. 001296777.