FXCM News: After the Release of the US Strategic Reserves, USOIL Fell

　　US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) On Thursday, US President Biden authorized the unprecedented release of one million barrels per day from the country's SPR for the next six months to combat high prices caused by the Russian-Ukraine war and sanctions against Russia, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.

　　This is the third and greatest such step by the United States in recent months, after the release of 30 million barrels of oil by the Department of Energy in early March, just days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This was part of the International Energy Agency's concerted operation to release 60 million barrels of oil from member nations' emergency stockpiles.

　　Not long after that, and after a series of penalties against Russia, President Biden halted the country's oil imports.

　　Mr. Biden directed the Department of Energy to release 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November, long before the events in Ukraine erupted, to reduce increasing costs that were harming American consumers.

Output of OPEC+

　　The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, which include Russia and are generally referred to as OPEC+, have been under pressure to raise output and help bring down prices, which had risen owing to interruptions from the flu and, most recently, the Ukraine conflict.

　　The business has rejected such requests and has consistently adhered to its production target, increasing 400K barrels per day (BPD) every month since August 2021. It said yesterday that it will boost production by 432K in May, somewhat more than the prior adjustment.

　　The 27th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting decided that present volatility is driven by continuing geopolitical events rather than fundamentals, resulting in a well-balanced market.

Analysis of USOIL

　　The commodity fell following the announcement and continues to fall today, losing roughly 12% on the week and returning below the EMA200 (black line). It is currently vulnerable to last month's lows (93.51), which would put the crucial 88.80-82.80 level into focus. This sector, on the other hand, can limit greater drops since it contains the ascending trend-line from December's lows as well as the 200Days EMA.

　　Despite USOil's retreat and weekly losses, previous dips below the EMA200 have proven fleeting, and the oil reserves provided by the US are only a band-aid for a long-term crisis. As a result, the commodity retains its propensity to rise, albeit a trigger will almost certainly be required to break through the falling trend-line from last month's multiyear highs (108.77-109.00).