Mohicans markets ：0928 European Point of View

Wednesday, September 28, during the Asia-Europe session, this trading day will focus on the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in August, and the annualized total sales of new homes in the United States after seasonal adjustment in August. Pay attention to the speeches of officials such as Chicago Fed President Evans and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.

The market's previous forecast for a sharp rise in oil prices is being revised down as the latest move in the U.S. dollar was not anticipated. Given that foreign exchange movements are more difficult to control, the dollar's strength may continue to weigh on commodity sentiment in the coming months.

The Mohicans Markets strategy is for reference only and not as investment advice. Please read the terms of the statement at the end of the article carefully. The following strategy was updated at 15:30 on September 27, 2022, Beijing time.

CME Group options layout changes:

1650 Bullish decrease, bearish increase sharply, key resistance

1630 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease greatly, the long-short boundary and the resistance weaken

1620 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease, and the action can expand under the vigilance of breaking the position

1610 Bullish unchanged, bearish reduced, bearish target

1600 Bullish slightly increased, bearish decreased slightly, bearish target

1530 bullish unchanged, bearish increase sharply, medium line short target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price): 

1657-1660 Key positive area during the day

1642-1648 The strong resistance area, break through the short-term can pay attention to further rebound kinetic energy

1630-1633 Demarcation between long and short

1627 Short-term key position (Asian plate)

1621-1622 First support

1600-1610 Daily line level bears first target and support

1550-1560 Daily level short second target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 28. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes:

18.75 Bullish increase, bearish increase, bulls target

18.6 Bullish slight increase, bearish increase greatly, resistance

18.5 Bullish slightly increased, bearish slightly increased, resistance level

18 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly, bearish target

17.9 Bullish unchanged, bearish increasing, bearish target

17.75 Bullish unchanged, bearish increase, bears target

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

19 Trend Strong Resistance

18.8-18.85 Strong resistance during the day

18.5 Short-term long-short boundary

18.3 Key support in the early stage, key battle for position in the day

18 The first goal after breaking

17.5-17.6 Mid-line Support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 28. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Order flow key point labeling (spot price):

80.7-81 Last Friday, the starting point of heavy volume decline in the US market, an important resistance level

79-80 Strong yang force

78 Short-term key contenders (Asian market)

77.2 Short-term support (Asian market)

76.5 key intraday support

75-75.5 Option bet below short target

Special Tips (please click to read the EIA Foresight Special Issue):

The AP1 inventory data for the week from last night to September 23 was released, but the information disclosed was relatively vague; Among them, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.15 million barrels, higher than the expected 333,000 barrels, and an increase from the previous value of 1.035 million barrels; But gasoline inventories fell more than expected by 1.048 million barrels.

If the same is true for tonight's EIA data, gasoline demand may be better than crude oil demand, and it may drive the latter demand in the future.

However, considering that oil prices have fallen too much, the market is now starting to pay attention to the risk of OPEC's production cut intervention, and the attention to the inventory data should be reduced, unless there is a sharp change in EIA crude oil inventories tonight.

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 28. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

0.98 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, strong resistance

0.9750 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, resistance level

0.97 Bullish decrease slightly, bearish increase, strong resistance in the day

0.96 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease sharply, first resistance

0.9550 Bullish increase slightly, bearish decrease slightly, support level

0.95 Bullish increase, bearish increase sharply, bear target and key support

0.94 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly but the stock is large, and the mid-line bearish target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 28. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

CME Group options layout changes：

1.0950 Bullish increase sharply, bearish increase, rebound second target

1.09 Bullish increase, bearish decrease, rebound target and resistance

1.0850 Bullish unchanged, bearish decrease slightly but the stock dominates, strong resistance

1.08 Bullish increase, bearish decrease slightly, rebound resistance

1.07 Bullish increase, bearish increase, short-term key level

1.065 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase, bears target and support

1.055 Bullish increase slightly, bearish increase sharply, mid-line bearish target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on September 28. This strategy is a day strategy, please pay attention to the release time of the strategy.

Description:

Reminder: This article involves the technical analysis of 6 varieties of spot gold, spot silver, U.S. crude oil, EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD. Starting from the distribution of market chips, the change data of options positions published on the CME official website is superimposed on the average order flow change data of large brokers in the industry to more accurately mark the market trading sentiment in important price ranges.

The order flow mainly refers to the following Oder Book data, which is updated every 20 minutes, taking XAUUSD international gold as an example:

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general advice only. It does not take into account your investment goals, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranties or representations about this material. The examples in this material are for illustration only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising in any way, including negligence, from any information provided or omitted from this material. The features of MHMarkets products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statements available on the MHMarkets website. Derivatives can be risky and losses can exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.