Also, the DXY Index appears to have found technical support around the 99.00 price level, which is highlighted by the confluence of its 50-day simple moving average, October 2019 swing high, and mid-point retracement of last month’s bullish leg. From a fundamental perspective, the latest coronavirus developments have likely rekindled demand for safe-haven currencies and US Dollar dominance. Specifically, investor risk appetite soured on the back of news that several countries are prolonging their coronavirus lockdown.

Market participants have already started to show signs that their recent influx of coronavirus optimism has waned. This is indicated by a pop in the VIX Index, or ‘fear-gauge,’ which happens to mirror a spike in implied currency volatility. Ominously, the recent uptick in expected FX volatility and S&P 500 volatility seems to resemble the volatility explosion traders witnessed throughout February and March.

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +1.72 (63.26% of traders are long) – bearishreading Long positions are 17.19% lower than yesterday and 1.10% higher from last week Short positions are 0.21% higher than yesterday and 38.94% higher from last week We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was vulnerable heading into the close of March trade and that, “ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs needed to keep long-bias viable.” Price plummeted more than 5% to register a low at 1560 before ripping to fresh yearly highs into the April open. The advance failed at slope resistance this week with price unable to mount a daily close above the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the record highs at 1733. Initial daily support rests at the March high-day close at 1678 backed by the median-line / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1633- look for a larger reaction there If reached. Key support / bullish invalidation now rests at 1564/85.

Notes: A closer look at Gold price action sees XAU/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the March lows. A reversal off the upper parallel has price testing the weekly opening-range lows / median-line in early New York trade on Friday- look to the break for guidance with the broader advance at risk sub-1732 into the close of the week. A topside breach / close above the weekly highs needed to fuel the next leg higher in price with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795

EURO TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: EUR/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELS Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart EUR/USD in consolidation within April monthly opening-range Critical support at 1.0657 – breach above 1.1187 needed to shift broader focus higher Euro is down nearly 0.6% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD trading at 1.0880 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The focus remains on a break of the April opening-range with price continuing to contract within the confines of well-defined technical levels. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more Notes:In my most recent Euro Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted that the, “The immediate focus is on a break of the 1.0777-1.0977 range for guidance,” with our broader outlook still dependent on a hold above the March 2017 high-week close at 1.0657. A weekly reversal this week keeps price within the confines of the April opening-range heading into the close with Euro currently holding just above the 61.8% retracement of the late-March rally at 1.0831. Initial support steady at 1.0778 with a breach above 1.0976 needed to fuel the next leg higher in price towards key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci confluence zone at 1.1167/87 – a breach / close above this threshold would suggest a more significant low was registered last month with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the 100% extension at 1.1280 and the June 2019 high-day close at 1.1367. A weekly close below 1.0657 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 2017 low-week close at 1.0532.

Therefore, optimistic equity traders might look to capitalize on the relative strength of the Aussie Dollar. Should risk trends continue, AUD/USD may probe overhead resistance once more, while support around 0.62 will aim to keep price afloat in the interim. Further still, IG Client Sentiment Data reveals retail traders just recently shifted their bias to the short side, suggesting continued AUD/USD strength may be ahead.

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.12 (47.18% of traders are long) – neutral reading Long positions are6.10% higher than yesterday and 12.29% lower from last week Short positions are 6.11% higher than yesterday and 34.08% higher from last week We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Evidenced in the chart below, the Australian Dollar has considerably outperformed the ASX 200 relative to one of the other leading risk assets, the S&P 500. Using the US index as a benchmark, we can see not only the divergence between the two Australian assets, but also the formidable strength of the S&P 500 which has outperformed both AUD/USD and the ASX 200 since mid-March.

AUD/USD has gained on hopes the world’s financial authorities are equal to the massive challenge of coronavirus However it may be that some doubts on this score are setting in The currency could slip back if they get much deeper The Australian Dollar has risen sharply through April, benefitting as have many other growth-correlated assets from the astonishing rescue packages launched around the world in an effort to cushion economies from the coronavirus’ effects. And yes, billions of dollars’ worth of extra liquidity is now ready to flood markets, very possibly, turbo-charging recovery. When it comes. However, it hasn’t come yet and most national economies remain in varying states of lockdown while the contagion continues to spread and forecasts of global recession spread almost as fast. HAS OPTIMISM BEEN OVERDONE? There are now signs of market fear that they may have overdone the optimism and, if they take deeper root, progress could be tough for the Aussie. There’s not a huge amount on the domestic data slate likely to deter investors from their broad focus on the coronavirus headlines worldwide. Tuesday will bring a look at the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia which took place on April 7. Interest rates were held at their record lows back then, to the surprise of markets which had just about expected a further reduction to go with the two quarter-point trims made in March. However, it seems likely that the minutes will do no more than make it clear that all stimulus options remain on the table, and that will not add anything to what the market must already know. Investors will also get a look at the ‘trimmed mean’ quarterly inflation numbers, a curtain raiser for the full official release which will come toward the end of the month. Stickily low inflation was a key barrier to higher interest rates in the pre-Covid days but, as rates are likely to remain constrained for some time in any case now, the numbers may lose a bit of their bite. Skilled vacancy data for March could attract more attention than usual given that official jobless data for the month held up astonishingly well. It’s likely that this merely reflects a survey period which expired before virus-linked travel bans and shutdowns were imposed, but the labor market is in special focus now. Barring some unpredictable bit of left-field good news it seems likely that the Australian Dollar could struggle this week, so it’s another bearish call.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR & ASX 200 PRICE OUTLOOK: AUSSIE LEADS RECOVERY BUT STOCKS LAG The Australian Dollar has charged higher in recent weeks as it continues to recover lost ground from the abrupt declines suffered across all risk assets in late February and much of March. Now more than 13% off its March 18 low, AUD/USD has been a leader among growth-sensitive markets but its equity counterpart, the ASX 200, has lagged comparable indices in other developed regions. ASX 200 PRICE CHART: INDEX LAGS INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION

Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, AUD/USD tested and failed to break below the key level of 0.63. Currently, AUD/USD is moving towards the key level of 0.64. Its next support level is at 0.61800 and the next resistance level is at 0.64200.

Overall, NZD/USD is trending upwards. Recently, NZD/USD moved lower, breaking the support level of 0.60300. NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.58400 and the next resistance level is at 0.60300.

Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently, USD/JPY moved lower towards the key level of 107. Currently, USD/JPY is testing to break below the key level of 107. Its next support level is at 106.800 and the next resistance level is at 108.500.

GOLD AND CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS: Gold prices made new 7-year highs as haven assets continued to find favor Chinese import and export numbers beat gloomy forecasts Crude oil held up, but massive production cuts have not seen an upside range break yet Gold prices pushed on to new seven-year highs on Tuesday as investors continued to fret about the global economic hit dealt by the coronavirus even as Chinese economic data came in less weakly than expected. In US Dollar terms exports fell by 6.6% on the year in March, while imports slipped by 0.9%. This was in both cases much less than forecasts which centred on respective falls of 13.9% and 9.8%. While these numbers may suggest that supply chains are holding up better than economists had feared, it remains likely that the full extent of the demand collapse seen in western economies now to varying extents locked down has yet to show up in the data. The US Congress struggled to come up with a new relief bill on Monday with the Republicans and Democrats in standoff. The budget deficit is now forecast to balloon and anxious eyes are being cast are the dawning corporate earnings season. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund said on Monday that it would provide immediate relief to 25 member nations under its catastrophe relief program. Given all of the above a continued strong haven bid into gold is unsurprising and, indeed can be clearly seen. The metal is now at its highest since November 2012, with its all-time peaks now in the bulls’ sights.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS NZD/USD trades to a fresh monthly high (0.6131) even though New Zealand’s Treasury anticipates “a deep contraction in activity in the present June quarter,” and the exchange rate faces a key test as it comes up against the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion). NZD/USD RATE FORECAST: FORMER SUPPORT ZONE ON THE RADAR NZD/USD extends the advance from earlier this month even though New Zealand’s Treasury outlines five different economic scenarios following COVID-19, with the growth rate expected to decline “around 13% in Scenario 1, the least restrictive of the scenarios considered.” Recent price action raises the scope for a larger correction as NZD/USD negates a bear flag formation and breaks out of a narrow range, but the weakening outlook for global growth undermines the recent rebound in the exchange rate as it puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to further support the economy. The government projection warns “peaks in the unemployment rate vary from around 13% in Scenario 1 to nearly 26% in Scenario 3,” and the nationwide lockdown may force the RBNZ to deploy more non-standard measures even though the central bank adds “$3 billion of Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) debt to its Large Scale Asset Purchase programme (LSAP).” Unlike the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the RBNZ may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance at its next meeting on May 13 as Governor Adrian Orr insists that the central bank “can keep monetary support going for as long as necessary through QE (quantitative easing) and other tools.” It seems as though the RBNZ will continue to utilize its balance sheet as officials insist that the official cash rate (OCR) will sit at the record low of 0.25%for “at least 12 months,” and it remains to be seen if Governor Orr and Co. will continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank plans to “update its economic assessment and the size and scope of the LSAP at its next scheduled meeting.” With that said, the near-term correction in NZD/USD may continue to evolve ahead of the next RBNZ interest rate decision, but the exchange rate faces a key test as it comes up against the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion

SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT, PHILIPPINE PESO – TALKING POINTS US Dollar sank versus ASEAN FX as sentiment continued improving last week All eyes are on US earnings and retail sales. China GDP, Bank of Indonesia up What else is in store for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR and USD/PHP ahead? US DOLLAR ASEAN WEEKLY RECAP Last week’s US Dollar rout continued against ASEAN FX as it depreciated against the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. Market sentiment continued to broadly improve which helped to slow overall capital outflows from emerging market economies. To learn more about the importance of this fundamental theme, check out last week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook. Investors’ cheery mood could be attributed to a combination of hope for further US fiscal stimulus as well as slowing coronavirus case growth around parts of the world. Once again, the markets brushed aside the ongoing onslaught of dismal economic data. An unprecedented 17 million people have applied for jobless claims in the United States since the middle of last month as local consumer sentiment dwindled. One of the best-performing ASEAN currencies was the Indonesian Rupiah. This could have been attributed to the Federal Reserve opening up a US$60 billion repo facility with the country to help ease a USD shortage. ASEAN central banks have been stepping up efforts to stem devaluations in their currencies. Foreign exchange reserves are being spent and may continue being unwound. Investors are looking on with greater scrutiny.

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: Chinese trade data for March exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment generally. GBP is one of the beneficiaries, along with other ‘risk-on’ currencies including AUD and NZD. Now, 1.30 is in the frame as a long-term target for GBP/USD. GBP/USD EXTENDS ADVANCE Risk-on currencies including GBP, AUD and NZD are advancing against the USD after the latest Chinese trade data showed exports and imports both exceeding the expectations of analysts polled by the news agencies. The numbers showed exports down 6.6% in March, rather than the forecast -13.9%, and imports lower by 0.9% rather than the predicted -9.8%. Along with hopes that the coronavirus pandemic may be close to peaking, the start of measures being eased in countries like Austria and Spain, and central bank and government stimulus, a ray of optimism has returned. That has extended the climb in GBP/USD that began three weeks ago, bringing the early March high above 1.30 into focus as a long-term target. GBP/USD PRICE CHART, FOUR-HOUR TIMEFRAME (MARCH 4 – APRIL 14, 2020)

EURO OUTLOOK, DAX INDEX, IMF WORD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, IMF GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – TALKING POINTS Euro, DAX index could face selling pressure if IMF outlook spooks European markets Coronavirus pandemic threatening to undermine regional financial, economic stability DAX index has experienced a recovery but remains down over 20 percent year-to-date ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP US equity futures aimed higher along with Asia-Pacific stocks in what appeared to be a “risk-on” tilt in investors’ mood. This was also reflected in currency markets where the anti-risk US Dollar and Japanese Yen fell while their growth-oriented counterparts – the Australian and New Zealand Dollars – strengthened. This also followed better-than-expected Chinese trade data. EURO, DAX MAY FALL ON IMF WEO AND GFSR The Euro and DAX may fall if the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) reports inspire a selloff in the already-battered currency and index. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to reach an agreement on stimulus, unresolved political rifts may soon haunt the region at a time when it faces a crisis worse than what it had endured in 2008. Year-to-date, the Euro has fallen almost three percent and is trading at a multi-year low with the German DAX equity index down over 20 percent. The coronavirus pandemic has exposed underlying issues in the Eurozone both financially and economically that are now requiring unprecedented efforts on the part of governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) to address. The IMF’s assessment – particularly as it relates to financial stability – could inspire a selloff in the Euro and growth-oriented assets in the region if the institution’s outlook undermines confidence in a smooth recovery. Concern about the cross-continental so-called leveraged loan market has stirred investors’ angst in recent months with policymakers warning of another possible regional debt crisis.

Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD tested but failed to break below 1.09. EUR/USD’s next support level is at 1.08000 and the next resistance level is at 1.10000.