EURO ANALYSIS, EUR/USD, FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON, CORONAVIRUS– TALKING POINTS The Euro could suffer if Macron extends French coronavirus lockdown Other states may mimic second-largest Eurozone economy’s decision EUR/USD broke out of compression zone but gains could be capped ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP Initially, crude oil prices and US equity futures pointed higher after OPEC struck an historic production cut agreement over the weekend. However, what appeared to be a flicker of optimism initially quickly deteriorated into a risk-off tilt as growth-oriented assets turned lower. Asia-Pacific equities were generally mixed while the Japanese Yen edged higher against its G10 counterparts. EURO EYES FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON EASTER SPEECH The Euro may fall if French President Emmanuel Macron hints at extending the lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus. The prospect of a prolonged period of weaker consumption and higher unemployment because of shelter-in-place orders in the second-largest Eurozone economy could send a chilling message across the region. Other states may follow out of concern that a premature opening could risk a second wave of contagion. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to make some progress on a unified agreement for stimulus, additional may be needed if the shelter-in-place orders are extended. The main elements of the emergency package include revised credit lines from the ESM and a new 100 billion euro unemployment insurance policy. But the debate on how to deal with spending and structural issues after the coronavirus crisis is dealt with remain at the back of everyone’s minds. Learn more about market-moving political rifts here. EUR/USD PRICE CHART EUR/USD has broken above resistance labelled as “Downtrend Alpha” and out of the compression zone. However, the victory for Euro bulls may be short-lived as the pair mounts to challenge former support-turned-resistance between 1.0981 and 1.0989. If EUR/USD capitulates, it may instill a sense of discouragement and pressure the pair to retesting support at 1.0783.

JAPANESE YEN, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TALKING POINTS: Stocks slipped in a holiday thinned start to the week Risk aversion was notable as earnings season looms Crude oil prices were up but below the highs reached on news of production cuts. A new Asia Pacific trading week started off with risk aversion in the ascendant as investors fretted the likely heavy hit to corporate earnings dealt by the coronavirus’ awful spread. The anti-risk Japanese Yen made gains, while the growth-correlated Australian and New Zealand Dollars took an early hit, admittedly in markets thinned by Easter Monday holidays which saw major centers like Sydney and Hong Kong out of the game. Open stock markets were lower, with the Nikkei 225 down more than 1% and the Kospi off by 0.75%. US stock futures also pointed lower. Oil prices climbed on news that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the so-called ’OPEC Plus’ group had agreed production cuts, apparently ending the ruinous dispute on the subject which threatened to flood the market with cheap crude oil. Still, it’s by no means certain that such a flood would have been a bad thing in a world reeling from coronavirus, and end-demand for energy remains under heavy clouds. The bloc which includes Russia has agreed on reduction of 9.7 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs has already reportedly called the reductions too little and too late and still sees downside risk to its $20/barrel 2020 forecast, fearing that storage capacity will still be overwhelmed. US earnings season will kick off this week, with first quarter performances from the major banks in focus. With interest rates now cut back to the bone all over the world profitability will be under the microscope. Given all of the above it’s hardly surprising that the markets should have endured a cautious open. USD/JPY headed lower early but found Dollar bulls ready US crude oil prices have also risen on Monday but they remain well below the $31/barrel level hit in the immediate aftermath of the news that production cuts had been agreed. to defend psychological support at 108.00.

US DOLLAR, SINGAPORE DOLLAR, INDONESIAN RUPIAH, MALAYSIAN RINGGIT - TALKING POINTS ASEAN countries step up FX intervention amid the coronavirus outbreak As they did this, pairs like USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/MYR stabilized Investors may scrutinize central bank FX reserves when sentiment sours USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR CLOSELY EYEING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES As the haven-linked US Dollar aggressively appreciated amid the coronavirus outbreak, ASEAN central banks stepped up FX intervention efforts to help stem selling pressure in their currencies. A great way to measure the vigor of their actions is by looking at foreign exchange reserves. Lately pairs such as USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/MYR have given back recent gains, perhaps suggesting that these efforts are working. On the chart below, foreign exchange reserves have been declining in ASEAN nations such as Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. In fact those in Malaysia dipped to US$101.7 billion in March which was the lowest since the beginning of 2019. Indonesian FX reserves fell to US$120.97 billion last month which was the smallest since May 2019. Singapore levels have also turned cautiously lower. China – the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves - has also been spending its fair share. Their holdings declined by $46.1 billion last month which was the most aggressive pace since the end of 2016. When central banks spend their international reserves – which are mostly held in US Dollars - they can use them to purchase domestic FX and boost prices. This can go on so long as their holdings are not fully depleted. Granted, there has been a material shift in market sentiment since the end of last month. A combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing efforts from nations across the world to help stabilize economic health appears to be working thus far. But investors can become nervous in the event that risk aversion resurfaces and look at levels of FX reserve depletion with greater scrutiny.

Eurozone Faces Severe Recession in Economy; signs of a rebound may show up in the third quarter, but the economy won't recover completely until 2021. EURUSD daily pivot point: 1.0935 S1: 1.0919 R1: 1.0951 S2: 1.0902 R2: 1.0967

After hesitating in the previous week, gold prices soared in these last few days, with spot gold trading as high as $ 1,690.23 a troy ounce, to close the week less than $ 10.00 below this last. The bright metal gained the most on Thursday, following the US Federal Reserve decision to announce another round on massive easing, this time in the form of loans of up to $2.3 trillion. Following the announcement, US Federal Reserve Chief Powell offered a speech afterwards and reaffirmed that the central bank would continue to use all available tools to support the American economy until it recovers. Concerned about the high levels of unemployment the US may reach, Powell was overall confident that the situation will revert as soon as the pandemic is under control. Gold futures, in the meantime, reached a 7.5 year high around $1,750.00 a troy ounce after the announcement, as the ongoing pandemic-related crisis, keeps fueling demand for the safe-haven metal. With the world’s economies in pause, fears or recession loom, hence, demand for gold will likely persist. Excess of liquidity and shortage of physical gold Meanwhile, gold supply remains subdued. This past week, several Swill refineries re-opened, but global demand keeps rising. And as central banks have turned on the printing machine, much of the excess of liquidity has already a place to go. The extend of the global economic damage caused by the pandemic is yet to be seen, although nobody doubts it will be long and painful. In this scenario, gold is meant to keep on rallying. More hints on how the pandemic is hitting the world will be out next week, as the US will report March Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 3. Spot Gold Technical Outlook Trading at around 1,680, spot gold is close to the multi-year high set early Mach at 1.703.18. The commodity is bullish, with technicals aligned with fundamentals. The weekly chart shows that it bottomed at around the 61.8% retracement of its latest weekly slump, at 1,606.60. It has continued to develop far above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating north. Technical indicators have resumed their advances within positive levels, although they lack enough strength to confirm a steeper advance. In the daily chart, the Momentum indicator is partially losing its bullish strength in overbought levels, while the RSI maintains its strength upward at around 63. The 20 DMA has turned back north, although it’s barely picking up after trending lower for the past 5-weeks. Anyway, the larger moving averages maintain their bullish slopes. The weekly high at 1,690 is the immediate resistance ahead of 1,703. Beyond this last, 1,795.80, the high from October 2012, comes at sight. Supports for the upcoming days come at 1,661 and the 1,640 price zone.

Technical Overview EUR/USD faces the next key up barrier at the January’s low at 1.0992 ahead of the psychological 1.10 mark. Further up, the pair needs to surpass the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1060, in order to allow for a visit to recent peaks in the mid-1.1100s (March 27/30). In case sellers step in, the monthly/weekly low at 1.0768 (April 6) should emerge as an interim support ahead of the 2020 low at 1.0635 recorded in mid-March. Fundamental Overview EUR/USD manages well to keep business in the upper end of the weekly range at the end of the week, always in a context of the renewed and moderate selling pressure in the buck and the positive outcome from the Eurogroup meetings. In fact, the recent deal clinched by the Eurogroup has mitigated political concerns that have re-surfaced following the effervescence between Holland-Germany and France-Italy-Spain, all regarding the joint efforts to fund the effects of the COVID-19 on some economies. Later in the day, the focus of attention is expected to be on the publication of US March’s inflation figures, although marginal volatility and flat trade conditions due to the Easter holidays could remove some significance from the release.

CANADIAN DOLLAR, LOONIE, USD/CAD TALKING POINTS: USD/CAD put in an aggressive breakout in March, and has since started to pullback. That bullish breakout stopped 21 pips shy of the 17-year-high. The ensuing snapback has grown in aggression, with price action now testing around the 1.4000 psychological level.

The USD/CAD broke back below 1.4000 for the first time in six sessions on Tuesday as the continuing dissolution of the US labor market failed to excite further risk-aversion fears and the Federal Reserve unveiled a $600 billion lending program for medium sized business part of a $2.3 trillion package to support local and state governments and companies with loans and securities purchases. OPEC and Russia agreed on a tentative production deal which would cut about 10 million barrels a day in May and June. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the largest producers, would reduce their output by 8.5 million a day and all members would cut their supply by 23%, according to news reports. The deal is conditional on Mexico’s approval. Energy Secretary Rocio Nahle Garcia said on Twitter after the Thursday meeting that her country is willing to reduce output by 100,000 barrels far less than the 400,000 assumed in the agreement. This attempt to support oil prices with supply restrictions is far larger than previous efforts by the cartel and is backed by US President Trump. North American shale companies are under severe financial pressure from the more than 50% collapse in crude prices this year. Production costs in the shale fields are generally higher than the more traditional extraction in the Middle East and Siberia. Signs that the pandemic is easing in the US and Europe improved risk sentiment throughout the week. The USD/CAD fell 1.8% and is back to the level of mid-March before the most aggressive Coronavirus inspired fears drove the pair to 1.4668 on March 19, the highest price in four years and the second highest since 2003. The euro gained 1.3% versus the dollar on the week and the USD/JPY was static opening at 108.53 and closing just 10 points lower, though it was down from Monday’s 109.38 high. USD/CAD outlook Economic damage around the world from the public health measures instituted to cope with the Coronavirus has taken concrete shape with the astonishing US and Canadian jobs losses. In the US almost 17 million people, 10% of the workforce, have filed for unemployment insurance in the last three weeks. In Canada one million workers lost their positions in March and the unemployment rate jumped to 7.8% from 5.6%, its highest since February 2011. Market risk is a matter of perception. In the ascending phase of the crisis in early March the extent of the pandemic and its economic effects were largely unknown but subject to the worst interpretations. The US dollar and US assets were, as they have always been, the refuge of choice. The actual job losses in the US and Canada were far higher than expected but they are now known instead of conjecture and if the knowledge is not reassuring is quantifiable. Five factors began to tilt the risk balance away from the US dollar and toward the loonie this week. First, the pandemic has started to moderate in several countries in a fashion that may predict its end. Second, infection, hospitalization and fatality rates in the US are proving to have been widely exaggerated when compared to real numbers and the models have been adjusted lower by large multiples. Third, government support programs from Washington and Ottawa and the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have restored market confidence in the functioning of the financial system and, more hopefully, that some of the economic pain from closures can be mitigated. Fourth, talk in DC is slowly shifting to how and when to reopen the economy. Fifth, the OPEC production deal, if approved, should put a floor under crude prices until the reviving global economy increases demand. None of these developments are assured but if they continue the US dollar’s risk premium, in general and against the Canadian in particular, will slowly drain away and the stage will be set for Dollar Canada to return to pre-crisis levels. The USD/CAD is supported at 1.3950, 1.3800 and 1.3660 but the rapid nature of the price movement in the last month and the fundamental motivation means that these levels will not endure much pressure. The same stipulations apply to the resistance lines at 1.4075, 1.4180, 1.4300 and 1.4380.

Pound/dollar was somewhat shocked – like the British public and the rest of the world – by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's admission to intensive care amid complications of COVID-19. Cases and deaths of the disease continue mounting in the UK, US, and elsewhere, and lockdowns are likely to continue weighing on the economies. This week in GBP/USD: Leadership vacuum amid the peak of the crisis Being in intensive care is never good news – the report that PM Johnson's condition deteriorated weighed on the pound, and so did the initial release of his hospitalization. Calming words from Downing Street – such as that he does not need ventilation – failed to unnerve traders. Johnson has been elected in a landslide majority only in December and had considerable political clout, and his absence in a national crisis is worrying. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is deputizing for him and running the day to day operations, but it is unclear how far he can go with big decisions. Raab, a former lawyer, and a hard-Brexiteer previously competed for the job and is experienced in government. However, the UK's management of the crisis has already come under criticism, first for letting the virus run and later for the lack of tests. Having a less-experienced and less popular interim leader in place is yet another factor weighing on confidence. The death toll from coronavirus continues rising and souring the mood, especially as the University of Washington forecast that the UK may suffer 66,000 mortalities. In the US, the curve also refuses to flatten significantly, with the states of New York and New Jersey suffering rapid spreads. Other parts of the country are not as hard hit for now, and President Donald Trump is considering opening up some parts of the economy. Trump is also warming up to add stimulus to the economy, mulled by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Another $1 trillion in expenditure to mitigate the economic effects of coronavirus is under consideration. The reports pushed stocks higher at some point and weighed on the dollar. US jobless claims disappointed once again with over 6 million – yet markets jumped as the Federal Reserve announced a new scheme at the exact same time. The Fed laid out several new schemes that total $2.3 in loans. The new bazooka from Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues sent stocks up and the dollar down. UK events: Johnson's health, lockdown extension, economic measures At the time of writing, the PM's condition remains stable, but he has not left intensive care. Any update on Johnson may move markets and overwhelm other events. The longer he stays in the hospital, the more significant the pressure on the pound. The UK is set to extend its lockdown for several weeks – at least until a peak in cases can be seen in the rearview mirror. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will likely have to take that decision, based on medical experts' advice and alongside his peers in the cabinet. Former health minister Jeremy Hunt suggested that significant restrictions may be extended for at least a month. The shuttering is taking a substantial toll on the economy, and the public is playing along. However, criticism may increase if testing for COVID-19 cases remains limited. Raab may find himself in a tricky situation and without the necessary political capital to deal with an escalation of the crisis. See Coronavirus Exit Strategy: Three critical factors to watch and how they impact currencies One option that has been aired is a government of national unity. Keir Starmer, a moderate, has been elected leader and may join forces with the Conservatives amid the deterioration and as long as the PM remains away from Downing Street. Such a move, which is in its infancy, may boost the pound. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak – who would take over if Raab becomes sick – may introduce additional measures to help struggling businesses and workers, and the unemployed if lockdowns are extended. That would also be positive for the pound. The only noteworthy economic release is the British Retail Consortium's Retail Sales figure for March. It will likely reflect a leap as Brits stockpiled ahead of the lockdown. Here is the list of UK events from the FXStreet calendar: UK macro economic events April 13 17 2020 US events: Potential restriction easing and consumer data Has the US coronavirus crisis peaked or not? That question will likely be on the top of the agenda and may see a struggle between health officials and the White House. Trump would like to return to normal as soon as possible, to boost the economy and his reelection chances. However, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH), said it is time to intensify efforts, not loosen them. In any case, the decision mostly rests with state governors. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse for the economy and stocks – and better for the safe-haven dollar. Governors will likely make decisions according to the health situation in their states so that the daily updates may have the most substantial impact on currencies. The epicenter has been New York, but with some signs of peaking, the focus may move to other places in America. Retail sales for March stand out, and they may show a discrepancy between the headline figure and core numbers. Overall, shopping may have risen – or at least not collapsed – as Americans were stocking up on supplies. However, excluding volatile items, expenditure has likely dropped amid massive layoffs. It is also essential to note that the figures have unlikely captured the full extent of the economic damage in March, and the whole picture will be available only with revisions due in the following report. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book – usually a "gray" document – will shed some light on what central bankers here from businesses and the picture will likely be gloomy. The publication precedes the next Fed decision. Weekly jobless claims remain a wildcard, with figures in the millions, but likely without a clear consensus. This publication, for the week ending on April 10, is the first one where the four-week rolling average will have already captured four consecutive reports in the millions. The smoothed-out indicator will likely provide a baseline for the employment situation.

GOLD TECHNICAL PRICE OUTLOOK: XAU/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELS Gold priceupdated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart XAU/USD surges into weekly uptrend resistance – weekly close in focus New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide Gold prices surged nearly 4% this week with the XAU/USD rally testing uptrend resistance ahead of the extended holiday break. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable IF price closes below this threshold. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more. Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “testing the first major resistance hurdle here at the yearly high-close. From a trading standpoint, the advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold.” The level in focus was 1673 – price is trading above this level in early New York trade on Thursday with parallel resistance catching the intraday highs for now. We’re looking for a reaction up here. A close below slope resistance would leave the advance vulnerable heading into the extended holiday break. Initial support rests at the January highs at 1611 backed by 1586 and the April open at 1574- now medium-term bullish invalidation. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the yearly swing high at 1703 and the 78.6% retracement / pitchfork resistance at 1733/37 – look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: The gold price rally is testing uptrend resistance and the focus is on the weekly close with respect to this slope. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. While the broader outlook remains constructive, be on the lookout for possible near-term exhaustion here IF price holds below this trendline – ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries with a breach of the highs exposing longer-term technical resistance above 1730. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels. GOLD TRADER SENTIMENT – XAU/USD PRICE CHART A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.04 (75.26% of traders are long) – bearishreading Long positions are11.29% higher than yesterday and 10.13% higher from last week Short positions are0.65% higher than yesterday and 1.52% higher from last week We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Overall, USD/JPY is trending upwards. Recently, USD/JPY has been ranging across. Currently, USD/JPY is testing the support level of 108.500 and the next resistance level is at 110.000.

Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD moved higher, breaking the resistance level of 0.60300. New Zealand banks will be closed on Monday in observance of Easter Monday. Lower trading volume and volatility is expected during the New Zealand trading session. NZD/USD’s next support level is at 0.60300 and the next resistance level is at 0.62200.

Latest data from EPFR that traces the trading trend of funds suggests that in the week from March 26th to April 1st,net purchase of inverse ETF totaled an unprecedented US$6.04 billion, which shows that investors remain mostly bearish about the market, despite US stock market’s recent rally. Dow Jones Index daily pivot points: 22940---23240 S1: 22668                R1: 23813 S2: 21945               R2: 24235

Harga minyak merosot lagi pada akhir perdagangan Selasa (Rabu pagi WIB), di tengah membengkaknya pasokan minyak mentah dan melemahnya permintaan bahan bakar karena pandemi Virus Corona, sementara investor semakin hati-hati atas ekspektasi bahwa produsen terbesar dunia akan segera menyetujui pengurangan produksi. Harga minyak mentah berjangka West Texas Intermediate (WTI) untuk pengiriman Mei, jatuh 2,45 dolar AS atau 9,4 persen menjadi menetap di 23,63 dolar AS per barel, mempercepat kerugiannya di sore hari menjelang laporan persediaan minyak mentah mingguan AS.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently increased the size and scope of the QE program and implied that further expansion will take place if necessary. NZD/USD daily pivot points: 0.5969 S1: 0.5923               R1: 0.6015 S2: 0.5898                R2: 0.6060

AUD/USD closed up 1.5% on Monday, being the daily best performer of major currencies. AUD/USD daily pivot points: 0.6050--0.6070   S1: 0.6013               R1: 0.6129 S2: 0.5945               R2:  0.6175

According to the latest statistics, euro speculative net longs increased by 12,957 to 74,247 contracts, among which speculative longs increased by 2,687 to 155,047 and speculative shorts decreased by 10,270 to 80,800 contracts.

While we expect AUD/USD to return to the higher range of 0.65, the question is when that will happen. AUD/USD daily pivot points: 0.6083---0.6111 S1 0.6008 R1 0.6154 S2 0.5950 R2 0.6242

USD/CAD ran into resistance a couple of weeks back via the 2016 highs, initially the pullback was looking like it might be shallow but then a minor wave of selling hit. The selling may be over now, with the Friday low at 13920 acting as the line-in-the-sand to watch.

The British Pound has declined by 7.67% in value against the Canadian Dollar since March 9. The currency pair tested the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern at 1.6534 during last week's trading sessions.